What worked prior to 1995 for investors, no longer works in our “New Age of Investment Bubbles” we as investors find ourselves in these days.If you as an investor manage your own employer-sponsored 401(k), Roth/401(k), 403(b), or other retirement account, or leverage a Buy-and-Hold strategy to build long-term wealth, or choose to hire a financial advisor/professional to manage your money… your investments are not protected from the massive loss of wealth that will occur when the next and all future bubbles bursts.In this article, I’ll focus on:
Why a Buy-and-Hold strategy is dead in today’s “New Age” of investing.
Why protecting your wealth must be your #1 priority.
The “New Age of Investment Bubbles”1995 ushered in a whole new era of investing that the vast majority of today’s investors have yet to recognize and adapt to. Investors have been mislead into believing that what worked in the years prior to 1995, is still relevant in this “New Age” of short-term irrational speculation, or gambling, or chasing what’s “hot.”This “New Age” is built on investment bubbles that burst wiping out trillions of dollars of investor wealth and making it impossible for investors to ever realize their lifetime wealth potential.If you’re not familiar with the S&P 500 index, the most widely held and measured stock index over time, I recommend you check out the link below to get a quick visual representation and historical perspective. I’m confident you too will agree that 1995 was a year something dramatically changed and altered the landscape of investing.Please don’t be mislead or fooled by a financial advisor, your parents, or friends that what has worked in the past, will work in this “New Age of Investment Bubbles.” It certainly didn’t stop the massive loss of investor wealth during the Tech and Housing bubbles when those bubbles burst, and there’s no reason to think this “New Age” is going to change anytime soon as it has enriched and built massive amounts of wealth for Wall Street, investment banks, the financial services industry and all those working in them… just not for we the “average investor.”Why Buy-&-Hold Is DEAD!Buy-and-Hold is… no was… a great long-term strategy prior to 1995 when markets were rational, as it was easy to manage, it removed all emotions from investing, and had a proven track record of success over many decades. This strategy however, is no longer relevant or prudent in today’s “New Age” and a little math and the S&P 500 are all that are needed to prove why Buy-and-Hold is dead!As a Buy-and-Hold investor, you’re taught that to build long-term wealth you only need to stay invested in the markets 100% of the time so you capture all the upside potential during extended Bull Markets, while weathering the downside of Bear Markets. Let’s see how this strategy has worked in this “New Age.”If you started with $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of the Tech Bubble on January 1, 1995 and stayed invested 100% of the time, your investment would have gained 115% during its Bull Market and weathered a loss of 50.8% during its Bear Market. At the end of the Tech Bubble, your initial $ 100,000 investment would have grown to $105,780, nothing to write home about after 7 years.The Housing Bubble immediately followed and its Bull Market gained 105%, or just barely enough to recover the 50.8% loss. When the Housing Bubble burst however, the loss was 56.8% and thus your initial $ 100,000 investment as a Buy-and-Hold investor, would now be worth $ 93,679 after 14 years for an annual rate of return of -0.46%.This is the exact reason why so many Baby-boomers are having to consider delaying retirement, supplementing their retirement income with a second job, or even worse, taking greater risk with their investments in a futile attempt to earn greater return in this “New Age.”Consider the Current Bubble we’re in. As of February 28, 2014, the S&P 500 had gained 175% during our current Bull Market, increasing the value of your $ 93,679, to $ 257,617 for an annual rate of return of 5.06% since 1995. But don’t forget, all bubbles burst and today’s Current Bubble is no exception. Assuming our Current Bubble will follow the trend of the Tech and Housing Bubbles, it’s not hard to fathom a 50% loss. Based on such a loss, your initial $ 100,000 investment will be worth $ 128,808 after approximately 21 years, and that $28,808 gain in wealth would equate to an annual rate of return of 1.21% in this “New Age of Investment Bubbles.”No investor will ever build long-term wealth at that rate of return!RIP Buy-and Hold… or till we meet again!What’s An Investor To Do In This “New Age” To Build Wealth? Investors must recognize the biggest challenge and most important factor to building long-term wealth in this “New Age,” is in how to protect the value of their investments from the massive loss of wealth when bubbles burst. Protecting wealth must be an investor’s #1 priority if they ever want to build long-term wealth.Protecting wealth today requires a unique approach that minimizes these massive and devastating losses of wealth when bubbles burst. To do such, investors must simply learn when it’s prudent to get out of the market when a major market meltdown is occurring by moving their investment(s) to the safety of cash or a cash-equivalent position. This is not difficult to achieve but it cannot be accomplished with any degree of success by guessing when to get out of the market, counting on your emotions to tell you when you’ve lost enough money and it’s time to get out, or by listening to friends and/or co-workers.The only way an investor can successfully protect their wealth in today’s “New Age of Investment Bubbles” is by integrating a simple, yet highly disciplined strategy that leverages pre-determined entry and exit triggers or indicators.Pre-determined entry and exit triggers work like this. Once a bubble burst, a pre-determined exit trigger would tell an investor shortly after the meltdown has begun to sell their investment(s) and move their money to cash or a cash equivalent investment, and once the meltdown is over and the markets have begun to recover, a pre-determined entry trigger would tell the investor it’s safe and prudent to buy back into their investments so they capture the upside potential of the new Bull Market so they can build wealth.Academic studies prove a strategy of this type removes the guesswork, emotions, and noise for investors in trying to time the markets, reduces overall portfolio risk and volatility, protects wealth from the massive market meltdowns when bubbles burst, and ultimately, provides the added benefit of improved annual rates of return.How does a strategy using pre-determined triggers compare against a Buy-and-Hold investor in today’s “New Age?” Let’s assume a worst case scenario that after a bubble burst, a pre-determined exit trigger gets an investor out of the markets after a loss of 25%, and gets an investor back in after the markets have gone back up at least 25%. In essence, our entry trigger lags a market recovery and misses out on the first 25% of gains during a Bull Market, but our exit trigger minimizes the overall market losses when a bubble burst or during Bear Markets.After the Tech Bubble, an investor integrating a pre-determined trigger strategy would have seen their wealth grow to $ 142,500 versus the $ 105,780 for the Buy-and-Hold investor. After the Housing Bubble, the investor using triggers saw their wealth grow to $ 192,375 versus $ 93, 679 for the Buy-and-Hold investor, and after the Current Bubble bursts, $ 360,702 versus $ 128,808. The $360,702 amount of wealth for the investor using triggers would have realized an annual rate of return of 6.30%, versus 1.21% for a Buy-and-Hold investor.To see the detailed comparison of a Buy-and-Hold investor versus an investor using pre-determined triggers, please check out the link below.What’s important for investors to understand in the examples above are not the absolute numbers, but the power of using pre-determined triggers with their investments to build and protect wealth in this “New Age of Investment Bubbles.”Protecting wealth is the most important aspect in this “New Age” and it must be an investor’s #1 priority if they hope to build long-term wealth and realize their lifetime wealth potential.S&P 500 Index Historical ChartBuy-and-Hold versus Triggers.

As the world around us continues to adapt to a new sense of normal in light of COVID-19, we at Smythe LLP (Smythe), recently sat down (virtually) with Kendall Hanson from CHEK News to discuss how we’re adapting to working from home and what is means for us as a firm, as well as the communities we live and work in.

Although we may be smack dab in the middle of our busiest time of year, things at Smythe are still business as usual – with a few notable exceptions.

The first, and probably most obvious, is that nearly all our staff have now transitioned to working from home.

“The first week of office closures and having everyone work from home was definitely a week of transition, but I think everyone’s really quickly adapted to it and gotten used to it and a lot of people are really enjoying it,” said Partner, Trevor Topping.

During a time where our offices would normally be a buzz with client visits and meetings, our offices are now closed to the public and a skeleton crew has been put in place to ensure clients are able to safely drop off necessary files and mail is being received and sent out.

To read the full article and to hear what Trevor had to say about Smythe’s new normal, click here.

For more information on our response to COVID-19, or to learn what support is available to you, please visit our COVID-19 Resource Centre, or reach out to your Smythe Partner directly.

Given the current economic uncertainty, effective cash flow management will be critical for the success of many businesses. This will likely involve a combination of:

Managing working capital levels
Managing discretionary expenses
Obtaining additional financing

Working capital management can take the form of:

Implementing Credit Policies
By implementing credit policies with your customers you can speed up the collection process. This could include requiring upfront deposits, reducing the credit terms or offering incentives for early payment. Always ensure you follow-up on overdue accounts.
Utilizing a Just-in-Time Inventory System
Unless it will hurt your ability to sell, don’t carry extra inventory.
Using Credit Terms to your Advantage
Unless they are offering worthwhile incentives, don’t pay your suppliers until it is necessary.

A tool that should be utilized to help with managements’ decision making, is a cash flow forecast. This will help you assess the impact of working capital and expense management decisions, as well as determine whether additional financing will be required.

If you decide that you need to obtain financing (see below), it is likely that the lender will require a forecast as part of the application process.
Obtaining Additional Financing

As part of the economic stimulus package, the Government of Canada is working to ensure businesses have access to traditional financing, from both the government and private lenders.

Among the products being targeted to COVID-19 relief are:

Working Capital Loans
Funds to provide working capital for the operations, and cover general operating expenses, as opposed to capital purchases or expansions. There are currently programs in place where loans can be approved within 48 hours or maybe available without any payments for the first six months. BDC loans of up to $100,000 can be applied for online.
Loan Guarantee for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
As part of the Business Credit Availability Program, EDC is partnering with financial institutions to guarantee 80% of new loans or credit requests up to $6.25 million for small and medium-sized enterprises. Financing is meant to be used for operating costs and is available to exporting and non-exporting companies. The idea behind the program is to encourage additional funding from banks as the EDC provides a re-payment guarantee of 80%. This program is now available through your bank or credit union.
Bridge Financing Program
Offered through BDC Capital, this special program may match (with a convertible note) a current financing round being raised through qualified existing and/or new investors made into eligible Canadian start-ups. This program is best suited for high-potential companies that have venture capital investors willing to support them. BDC will then invest alongside these groups. There are separate criteria for both companies and investors who wish to take advantage of this program – for full details, click here.
Term Loan and Lease Payment Relief
Ability to delay payment of principal for up to six months on existing loans.
Increases to Existing Line of Credit
Financial institutions are providing increases to the borrowing limits on existing lines of credit.
Purchase Order Financing
Flexible terms are being offered to ensure existing and future orders can be fulfilled.
Buyer Financing
Export Development Canada is providing buyer financing and direct financing for international sales to ensure Canadian businesses are able to participate in international trade opportunities.

If your business requires cash flow management or additional financing, please contact your Smythe Partner directly as additional reporting may be required. Our team can match your business with the appropriate product and guide you through the process and provide financial information to the lending institutions.

the Government of Canada announced the Canada Emergency Business Account interest-free loans that provide up to $40,000 for small businesses and not-for-profits that have been financially impacted by COVID-19. On December 4, 2020, the program was expanded to offer an additional $20,000 to businesses that continue to be seriously impacted by the pandemic. The loans are available through eligible financial institutions, and businesses must apply through a financial institution where they had an existing relationship. The loans are interest-free, and 25% of the original $40,000 of the balance and 50% of the additional $20,000 of the balance is forgivable if the business repays the loan by the end of 2022. Businesses are required to have had an annual payroll of $20,000 to $1,500,000 or non-deferrable expenses of at least $40,000 in 2019 to qualify.

Businesses have until March 31, 2021, to apply for a loan or the $20,000 expansion. In the case where applicants are waiting for their financial institution to finalize the submission of additional information, they will have until May 7, 2021, to complete the submission.